Xiaonian financial crisis is the fault of the U.S. money recklessly

 Xiaonian: Financial crisis is the fault of the U.S. money recklessly
appointed Managing Director, CICC, China Europe International Business School of Economics and Professor of Finance Xiaonian relapse warning asked. Although Xiaonian for the current year's , on behalf of the blue arrows and capital goods from China point to the United States, has experienced the cycle of the United States, returned to China. There are two main driving force, one driven by exports, the second driving force is investment, driven by investment and exports, China's strong economic growth. is also a high growth and low inflation. For the U.S., the most significant impact is to help the U.S. control inflation. the process of global economic integration, there has been a huge structural imbalances, structural imbalances have a man-made factors, the main factor is the Fed's monetary policy mistakes .2001 Greenspan started easing monetary policy, but also this year started U.S. housing market, the stock market bubble big day by day.
2007   why the financial crisis? Just because the U.S. real estate bubble burst. Now, this financial crisis may be drawing to a close, but this is not the end of very quiet.
excessive consumption, beyond the ability to repay debt. The structure of China's economy is over-saving, over-investment, lack of private consumption. only to correct a huge structural imbalances, economic recovery is real and sustainable.
crisis, the U.S. real estate prices are down by 50% in the bubble-hit areas, house prices fell by 60% -70%, closing down hundreds of financial institutions, private consumption declined, saving rate. In economics, This process is called This is a very painful adjustment. fried. and goodbye to borrowing culture, built on the standard of living based on their income, not borrowing to get by, this is deleveraging. structural adjustments? , called harm than good. The excess capacity means that bad debts on banks. . out, but it is difficult or almost impossible to predict the exact time the earthquake. Once the Government to stop burning money, the economy might fall. ; economic data reminded me of supermarket 9.99 yuan , one can see that number I felt not right. recent macroeconomic figures as we buy in the store, the price is 9.99 yuan regular license, or 99.99 yuan, it will never last for 10 dollars or 100 dollars. It is said that consumer psychology is called, although only the difference between a penny, but it does not last 10 dollars, consumers will not find it expensive. a quarter of GDP is not the store's nine ninety nine what? have to close at 8, this phenomenon is Xiaonian dubbed the prices down it? Xiaonian that control policies promulgated by the state last month, can not solve the fundamental problem. The main reason is the hot property market imbalance between supply and demand, demand is strong. want to lower the price we must increase supply, which requires an increase in land supply . to increase land supply to take land from the hands of the government freed into the market, which involves land reform. Why the Government to seize hold of land? Because local revenue on the land, in the western provinces, income from land sales revenue accounted for more than 50% or even higher, how could the Government to let out? land reform on the premise that reform of the financial system. For the economy's structural problems, headaches can not treat the head, feet hurt the disease, to fundamentally to find a cause.
the trend for the price, Xiaonian said, have a great relationship, There are different voices, growth is the number of r, the real CPI is the number, still unclear. the people to look up inflation, real interest rates became negative, and in the bank in depreciation of money every day, how do? of course, physical assets to buy, buy house, buy gold, property prices, gold prices to rise sharply, these are very rational investment demand. how to make money? I say this is a joke, if I know how to make money, would not be standing here lecturing already own money went. Business School to teach the methodology and analysis tools.
people who are doing economic forecasting a lot of economic forecasting is actually a high-risk industry, most of them will mistake.
Do not buy a house according to my predictions. If one can accurately predict, I would not be in this lecture, I already went to the speculation.
good situation it is, is to print money. but if the printed ticket can solve the problem, then the world will not have any problem.
reporter's notes
Scholars
together Xiaonian wearing a casual dark suit. suit with white shirt without tie, just a dark red turtleneck Qiu Yi. Despite more than two hours just speech, but also jet lag, but look Xiaonian up without weariness.
and Xiaonian chat is a very pleasant thing. you can feel the power of his language and spirit, perhaps his true and whims. , count how ah? miscarriages of justice own almost got fired,
Xiaonian is real, is being reckless. Some people think he can go ahead and compete for the Nobel Prize in Economics, a little bit for being reckless.
Xiaonian, again playing a reporter intern Hanbo Jiang Hu Xiaojun Lu Hearts have written (This article Source: China Daily)